STK
St Kilda
VS
CAR
Carlton
Model
56%
Edge
+10.4%
Mkt
-1.2%
TipSTK
$2.22 · +6.5 · 4pt
Round 22 · 2026
Updated Wed 05 Aug 2026 00:31
⚠ Teams not confirmed — props unverified☂ Wet: Adelaide Oval, Kardinia Park, Manuka Oval, Perth Stadium
Best bets
analyst verdict| # | Market | Pick | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H2H | Brisbane Lions | $1.78 Bet Right vs $1.64 exchange; +2.0% edge; 8.5% book gap | 3 |
| 2 | Line | STK +6.5 | LINE VALUE flag; +10.4% model edge; $2.22 Betfair; 4pt margin model | 2 |
| 3 | Prop | Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals | 6-straight; avg 31.5; last-3 avg 31.3; dry venue | 2 |
| 4 | Prop | Nick Daicos 25+ disposals | 6-straight; avg 34.3; last-3 avg 36.7 (+2.3 trend) | 1 |
| 5 | Prop | Tim Taranto 25+ disposals | 6-straight; avg 26.8; last-3 avg 28.0; WET — shade only | 1 |
| 6 | Prop | Jake Bowey 25+ disposals | 4-straight; avg 26.6; last-3 avg 27.7 (+1.1); dry venue | 1 |
| 7 | Prop | Matt Rowell 25+ disposals | 5-straight; avg 26.5; last-3 avg 28.0 (+1.5); WET — fade if heavy rain | 1 |
Total exposure: 11u
Same-game multis
two legs, calculatedBRL v HAW — 1u, min $2.90
- Brisbane Lions to win (h2h $1.78; model 58%; strong exchange gap)
- Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals (6-straight; avg 31.5; dry Gabba; elite anchor prop)
MEL v FRE — 1u, min $2.60
- Fremantle to win (h2h $1.52; model 63%; positive model edge direction)
- Jake Bowey 25+ disposals (4-straight; avg 26.6; last-3 avg 27.7 +1.1 trend; dry venue)
The round
9 games, ranked by combined scoreWCE
West Coast
VS
COL
Collingwood
Model
76%
Edge
+5.1%
Mkt
-1.8%
TipCOL
$1.40 · -17.5 · 25pt
BRL
Brisbane Lions
VS
HAW
Hawthorn
Model
58%
Edge
+2.0%
Mkt
-1.0%
TipBRL
$1.78 · -4.5 · 7pt
WBD
Western Bulldogs
VS
NTH
North Melbourne
Model
69%
Edge
-1.7%
Mkt
-2.1%
TipWBD
$1.42 · -17.5 · 17pt
ADE
Adelaide
VS
RIC
Richmond
Model
92%
Edge
-3.9%
Mkt
-2.5%
TipADE
$1.04 · -54.5 · 51pt
GEE
Geelong
VS
ESS
Essendon
Model
93%
Edge
-4.8%
Mkt
-3.3%
TipGEE
$1.02 · -64.5 · 56pt
MEL
Melbourne
VS
FRE
Fremantle
Model
63%
Edge
-2.5%
Mkt
-1.9%
TipFRE
$1.52 · -11.5 · 12pt
SYD
Sydney
VS
PTA
Port Adelaide
Model
81%
Edge
-6.7%
Mkt
-3.5%
TipSYD
$1.14 · -37.5 · 32pt
GWS
Greater Western Sydney
VS
GCS
Gold Coast
Model
65%
Edge
-5.6%
Mkt
-1.9%
TipGWS
$1.41 · -17.5 · 14pt
The longshot
the fun one — most weeks it loses
Sydney v Port Adelaide
4 legs
$8.23
fair odds · only take at
$8.64+ · stake 0.25u
- Sydney to win · model 81%
- Chad Warner 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 50% of last 6
- Nick Blakey 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 50% of last 6
- Jason Horne-Francis 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 60% of last 5
A hobby project, for fun — nothing here is financial
advice.
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au