RIC
Richmond
VS
STK
St Kilda
Model
79%
Edge
+4.7%
Mkt
-1.2%
TipSTK
$1.34 · -22.5 · 29pt
Round 23 · 2026
Updated Thu 13 Aug 2026 18:20
✓ Teams confirmed☂ Wet: Gabba, Sydney Showground
Best bets
analyst verdict| # | Market | Pick | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Line | STK -22.5 (+6) | 79% model, +6 buffer, line value flagged | 2 |
| 2 | Line | FRE -17.5 (+7) | 76% model, +7 buffer, line value flagged | 2 |
| 3 | H2H | STK $1.34 | 79% win prob, MODEL ONLY shaded; best price Betfair | 1 |
| 4 | Player prop | Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals | 6-streak, avg 33.0, last-3 avg 33.7; BRL dry | 2 |
| 5 | Player prop | Nick Daicos 30+ disposals | 4-streak, avg 34.7, last-3 avg 37.7 (+3.0 trend) | 1 |
| 6 | Player prop | Charlie Cameron 2+ goals | 6-streak, avg 2.3 G; BRL dry venue | 1 |
| 7 | Player prop | Bailey Smith 25+ disposals | 6-streak, avg 32.0; GEE 75% win, dry conditions | 1 |
Total exposure: 10u (including SGM stakes below)
Same-game multis
two legs, calculatedBRL v GCS — 0.5u, min $2.80
- Brisbane Lions h2h (77% model, $1.18 best price, dry conditions)
- Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals (6-streak, avg 33.0, last-3 avg 33.7)
HAW v COL — 0.5u, min $3.20
- Hawthorn h2h (63% model, $1.40 Betfair, genuine line value edge)
- Nick Daicos 30+ disposals (4-streak, avg 34.7, last-3 avg 37.7, trending +3.0)
The round
9 games, ranked by combined scoreFRE
Fremantle
VS
ADE
Adelaide
Model
76%
Edge
+4.2%
Mkt
-1.9%
TipFRE
$1.40 · -17.5 · 24pt
NTH
North Melbourne
VS
GEE
Geelong
Model
75%
Edge
+1.2%
Mkt
-1.5%
TipGEE
$1.35 · -21.5 · 24pt
GWS
Greater Western Sydney
VS
WCE
West Coast
Model
84%
Edge
-3.0%
Mkt
-3.9%
TipGWS
$1.15 · -32.5 · 35pt
ESS
Essendon
VS
SYD
Sydney
Model
90%
Edge
-7.6%
Mkt
-3.4%
TipSYD
$1.03 · -60.5 · 46pt
BRL
Brisbane Lions
VS
GCS
Gold Coast
Model
77%
Edge
-7.6%
Mkt
-3.9%
TipBRL
$1.18 · -32.5 · 27pt
HAW
Hawthorn
VS
COL
Collingwood
Model
63%
Edge
-8.2%
Mkt
-1.2%
TipHAW
$1.40 · -18.5 · 12pt
WBD
Western Bulldogs
VS
CAR
Carlton
Model
59%
Edge
-10.5%
Mkt
-0.7%
TipCAR
$1.44 · -16.5 · 8pt
PTA
Port Adelaide
VS
MEL
Melbourne
Model
63%
Edge
-15.9%
Mkt
-1.9%
TipMEL
$1.26 · -28.5 · 13pt
The longshot
the fun one — most weeks it loses
Essendon v Sydney
5 legs
$7.54
fair odds · only take at
$7.92+ · stake 0.25u
- Sydney to win · model 90%
- Braeden Campbell 20+ disposals · boosted from 15+ -- hits 50% of last 4
- Nick Blakey 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 67% of last 6
- Isaac Heeney 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 67% of last 6
- Zach Merrett 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 67% of last 6
A hobby project, for fun — nothing here is financial
advice.
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au