Round 23 · 2026

Updated Sun 09 Aug 2026 22:00
⚠ Teams not confirmed — props unverified☂ Wet: Sydney Showground

Best bets

analyst verdict
# Market Pick Why Units
1 RIC v STK — H2H St Kilda 80% model, 29pt margin; no price yet, bet on open 2
2 NTH v GEE — H2H Geelong $1.30 TAB vs $1.26 Betfair; +4% bookie edge, 76% model 2
3 BRL v GCS — Prop Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals 5-streak, avg 31.8, last-3 avg 31.3; GCS weak vs mids 2
4 HAW v COL — Prop Nick Daicos 25+ disposals 5-streak, avg 33.8, last-3 avg 36.7 (+2.9 trend); Mkt -1.4% acceptable 1
5 NTH v GEE — Prop Bailey Smith 25+ disposals 5-streak, avg 30.8, last-3 avg 30.3; teams unconfirmed — stake shaded 1
6 RIC v STK — Prop Tim Taranto 25+ disposals 5-streak, avg 27.0, last-3 avg 28.0 (+1.0); teams unconfirmed — shaded 1

Total exposure: 9u (inc. SGMs below)

Same-game multis

two legs, calculated

NTH v GEE — 1u, min $2.80

RIC v STK — 1u, min $2.60

The round

9 games, ranked by combined score
GWS
Greater Western Sydney
VS
WCE
West Coast
Wet
Model
83%
Edge
-
Mkt
-
TipGWS n/a · - · 35pt
RIC
Richmond
VS
STK
St Kilda
No flag
Model
80%
Edge
-
Mkt
-
TipSTK n/a · - · 29pt
NTH
North Melbourne
VS
GEE
Geelong
No flag
Model
76%
Edge
-1.0%
Mkt
-3.8%
TipGEE $1.30 · -21.5 · 26pt
WBD
Western Bulldogs
VS
CAR
Carlton
No flag
Model
57%
Edge
-
Mkt
-
TipCAR n/a · - · 6pt
FRE
Fremantle
VS
ADE
Adelaide
No flag
Model
74%
Edge
-2.4%
Mkt
-3.9%
TipFRE $1.30 · -21.5 · 23pt
HAW
Hawthorn
VS
COL
Collingwood
No flag
Model
65%
Edge
-5.6%
Mkt
-1.4%
TipHAW $1.42 · -16.5 · 13pt
ESS
Essendon
VS
SYD
Sydney
No flag
Model
87%
Edge
-8.7%
Mkt
-3.2%
TipSYD $1.04 · -59.5 · 42pt
BRL
Brisbane Lions
VS
GCS
Gold Coast
No flag
Model
75%
Edge
-10.6%
Mkt
-4.1%
TipBRL $1.17 · -32.5 · 25pt
PTA
Port Adelaide
VS
MEL
Melbourne
No flag
Model
60%
Edge
-17.6%
Mkt
-3.9%
TipMEL $1.28 · -24.5 · 10pt

The longshot

the fun one — most weeks it loses
Greater Western Sydney v West Coast 4 legs $7.99
fair odds · only take at $8.39+ · stake 0.25u
  • Greater Western Sydney to win · model 83%
  • Lachie Whitfield 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 50% of last 4
  • Xavier OHalloran 20+ disposals · boosted from 15+ -- hits 50% of last 4
  • Harley Reid 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 60% of last 5
A hobby project, for fun — nothing here is financial advice.
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au