STK
St Kilda
VS
CAR
Carlton
Model
55%
Edge
+9.3%
Mkt
+3.8%
TipSTK
$2.20 · +4.5 · 4pt
Round 22 · 2026
Updated Sun 09 Aug 2026 19:30
✓ Teams confirmed
Best bets
analyst verdict| # | Market | Pick | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H2H | St Kilda | +9.3% edge, +3.8% mkt, model 55%, $2.20 SportsBet | 4 |
| 2 | Line | St Kilda +4.5 | Line value flag, $2.20 zone, 4-pt cushion | 3 |
| 3 | Disposal prop | NWM 25+ disposals | 5-streak, avg 33.8, last-3 30.3, well clear of bar | 1 |
| 4 | Disposal prop | Bradley Hill 25+ disposals | 5-streak, avg 33.4; price likely value at bar | 1 |
| 5 | Disposal prop | Jagga Smith 25+ disposals | 5-streak, avg 27.6, last-3 29.7 (+2.1 trend) | 1 |
Total exposure: 10u
Same-game multis
two legs, calculatedSTK v CAR — 1u, min $3.20
- St Kilda H2H (anchor — 55% model, +9.3% edge, $2.20)
- Jagga Smith 25+ disposals (5-streak, avg 27.6, last-3 avg 29.7, strong upward trend)
STK v CAR — 1u, min $3.00
- St Kilda H2H (anchor — same edge rationale)
- Sam Walsh 25+ disposals (4-streak, avg 28.0, last-3 avg 27.7, comfortably clears bar)
The round
1 games, ranked by combined scoreThe longshot
the fun one — most weeks it loses
St Kilda v Carlton
4 legs
$8.45
fair odds · only take at
$8.87+ · stake 0.25u
- St Kilda to win · model 55%
- Mattaes Phillipou 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 60% of last 5
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 60% of last 5
- Hugo Garcia 20+ disposals · boosted from 15+ -- hits 60% of last 5
A hobby project, for fun — nothing here is financial
advice.
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au