WCE
West Coast
VS
COL
Collingwood
Model
76%
Edge
+9.4%
Mkt
-1.4%
TipCOL
$1.50 · -12.5 · 25pt
Round 22 · 2026
Updated Thu 06 Aug 2026 18:20
✓ Teams confirmed☂ Wet: Adelaide Oval, Kardinia Park, Manuka Oval
Best bets
analyst verdict| # | Market | Pick | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H2H | BRL v HAW -- Brisbane | +2.7% edge, Mkt -0.1%, $1.82, model 58% (7pt) | 3 |
| 2 | Line | WCE v COL -- COL -12.5 | Line value flagged; $1.93 area; model 76% (25pt) | 2 |
| 3 | Prop | Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals | 6-streak; avg 31.5, L3 avg 31.3; BRL home, confirmed | 2 |
| 4 | Prop | Nick Daicos 25+ disposals | 6-streak; avg 34.3, L3 avg 36.7 (+2.3 trend) | 2 |
| 5 | H2H | STK v CAR -- Carlton | $1.73 SB vs $1.66 Betfair; +7c arb edge; model 55% | 1 |
| 6 | Prop | Tim Taranto 25+ disposals | 6-streak; avg 26.8, L3 avg 28.0 (+1.2); RIC confirmed | 1 |
| 7 | Prop | Jake Bowey 25+ disposals | 4-streak; avg 26.6, L3 avg 27.7 (+1.1); MEL confirmed | 1 |
Total exposure: 12u
Same-game multis
two legs, calculatedBRL v HAW -- 1u, min $2.80
- Brisbane to win (H2H $1.82, model 58%)
- Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals (6-streak, avg 31.5, L3 avg 31.3)
BRL v HAW -- 1u, min $2.80
- Brisbane to win (H2H $1.82, model 58%)
- Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals (6-streak, avg 31.5, L3 avg 31.3)
The round
9 games, ranked by combined scoreBRL
Brisbane Lions
VS
HAW
Hawthorn
Model
58%
Edge
+2.7%
Mkt
-0.1%
TipBRL
$1.82 · -4.5 · 7pt
WBD
Western Bulldogs
VS
NTH
North Melbourne
Model
68%
Edge
+0.5%
Mkt
-1.2%
TipWBD
$1.48 · -15.5 · 17pt
MEL
Melbourne
VS
FRE
Fremantle
Model
64%
Edge
-0.5%
Mkt
-0.9%
TipFRE
$1.56 · -10.5 · 12pt
ADE
Adelaide
VS
RIC
Richmond
Model
92%
Edge
-3.9%
Mkt
-3.0%
TipADE
$1.04 · -53.5 · 51pt
GEE
Geelong
VS
ESS
Essendon
Model
93%
Edge
-4.7%
Mkt
-3.3%
TipGEE
$1.02 · -64.5 · 55pt
GWS
Greater Western Sydney
VS
GCS
Gold Coast
Model
66%
Edge
-3.8%
Mkt
-0.2%
TipGWS
$1.43 · -16.5 · 15pt
STK
St Kilda
VS
CAR
Carlton
Model
55%
Edge
-2.8%
Mkt
-1.5%
TipCAR
$1.73 · -5.5 · 4pt
SYD
Sydney
VS
PTA
Port Adelaide
Model
81%
Edge
-6.7%
Mkt
-3.2%
TipSYD
$1.14 · -37.5 · 32pt
The longshot
the fun one — most weeks it loses
Sydney v Port Adelaide
4 legs
$8.23
fair odds · only take at
$8.64+ · stake 0.25u
- Sydney to win · model 81%
- Chad Warner 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 50% of last 6
- Nick Blakey 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 50% of last 6
- Jason Horne-Francis 25+ disposals · boosted from 20+ -- hits 60% of last 5
A hobby project, for fun — nothing here is financial
advice.
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au
Prices move; always check live odds. Gamble responsibly: gamblinghelponline.org.au